Sunday, March 16, 2014

Best Cities In The Best States

In my last post I ranked the states by debt to gross state product ratio and homicide rate. Here I will use two filters, and then four criteria to rank the best cities to live in.
First, I calculated the percent parkland of the top 13 states from my previous list. I'm using a very broad definition of parkland here. I used the sum of state park properties and National Park Service Properties. This included the acreage of parks, recreation areas, natural areas, historical areas, environmental education areas, scientific areas, forests, fish and wildlife areas, and miscellaneous areas from the Statistical Report of State Park Operations. I added this to the acreage of national historical reserves, historical sites, historical parks, recreation areas, and parks. I had to use some approximation for the second category because it was difficult to find breakdowns of acreage for national parks that span multiple states. Trails were ignored. I doubt that fixing approximation errors would lead to any change in the overall rankings, however.
State Parkland %
Massachusetts 5.93
Washington 4.32
New Hampshire 3.90
Utah 3.20
Idaho 2.40
Wyoming 2.02
Vermont 1.14
Minnesota 1.08
South Dakota 0.81
Maine 0.65
Wisconsin 0.62
Nebraska 0.38
Iowa 0.20
I decided to focus on just the eight states with more than 1% parkland. I then moved on to ranking the cities. The four criteria for cities were Transit Score (as published on www.walkscore.com), weather, natural disaster risk, and air pollution. Generally, a Transit Score is only published if a city has a 2010 population greater than 200,000. This limited my analysis to just six cities in the eight states I considered: Salt Lake City, Minneapolis, Saint Paul, Boston, Seattle, and Spokane. I excluded Salt Lake City and Seattle because they appear on the American Lung Association's list of most polluted cities. I used a natural disaster map published by The New York Times to assign each city a relative risk (1 being the lowest risk and 5 being the greatest). The final formula to rank the cities was Transit Score/(natural disaster risk(temperature variance + mean number of rain/snow days per year)). Temperature variance is the sum of the differences of the July mean high and the January mean low from 70 degrees F. The final rankings and there scores:
Rank State Score
1 Spokane 0.211
2 Minneapolis 0.111
3 Boston 0.100
4 Saint Paul 0.086
Although Spokane is the winner by a large margin, further investigation led me to conclude that I will not be moving there for now. Spokane has no public universities. I think the presence of a large university (especially public universities) can be important for the cultural and intellectual health of a city. For now, I will be staying in Minneapolis, unless the weather gets even worse, in which case I might be moving to Boston.

Friday, March 14, 2014

Best States To Live In

This is the first of a two-part series on the best place to live. Here I will rank the states according to just two criteria: the ratio of debt to gross state product, and homicide rate. Unlike some other ranking systems, I wanted to use criteria that is completely objective, and criteria that actually measures how moving to the place is likely to affect you. For comparison, the American Human Development Index ranks states by health, education, and income. I don't think this criteria is bad, but just because other people in a state are healthy and rich doesn't mean that you will become healthy and rich just by moving there. A states debt can be expected to impact the level of government services you will receive relative to the amount of taxes you will pay. I used 'total state debt', which includes unfunded pension liability. I obtained gross state product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Many people discuss crime rate, but I use homicide rate because it is a more reliable figure. Crime rate can be influenced by differences in reporting rates, and in differences in what is considered a crime from one location to another. Homicide has a nearly 100% reporting rate. While most people don't think of homicide as something they are seriously at risk of, it correlates with other crime that is more common. In the table the 2012 rate per 100,000 population is expressed.
Rank State GSP (millions) Debt Homicide Rate GSP/(Debt*HR)
1 New Hampshire 64,697 18,425,567 1.1 3,192
2 Iowa 152,436 37,783,060 1.5 2,690
3 Vermont 27,296 7,866,666 1.3 2,669
4 Nebraska 99,557 13,139,045 2.9 2,613
5 Idaho 58,243 15,094,322 1.8 2,144
6 Utah 130,486 35,727,752 1.8 2,029
7 Wisconsin 261,548 45,026,643 3.0 1,936
8 Minnesota 294,729 85,879,526 1.8 1,907
9 South Dakota 42,464 7,707,458 3.0 1,836
10 Massachusetts 403,823 129,550,263 1.8 1,732
11 Maine 53,656 16,717,250 1.9 1,689
12 Wyoming 38,422 9,951,523 2.4 1,609
13 Washington 375,730 89,579,477 3.0 1,398
14 Indiana 298,625 46,377,635 4.7 1,370
15 Virginia 445,876 91,339,102 3.8 1,285
16 North Dakota 46,016 9,263,742 4.0 1,242
17 Kansas 138,953 39,025,693 2.9 1,228
18 Tennessee 277,036 41,049,738 6.0 1,125
19 Colorado 274,048 86,879,414 3.1 1,018
20 Oregon 198,702 86,678,268 2.4 955
21 Montana 40,422 15,769,183 2.7 949
22 Texas 1,397,369 340,944,239 4.4 931
23 New York 1,205,930 387,465,667 3.5 889
24 North Carolina 455,973 107,580,297 4.9 865
25 Rhode Island 50,956 18,863,153 3.2 844
26 Arizona 266,891 61,082,635 5.5 794
27 Florida 777,164 197,871,611 5.2 755
28 Hawaii 72,424 46,100,856 2.1 748
29 West Virginia 69,380 24,972,461 3.9 712
30 Delaware 65,984 15,991,093 6.2 666
31 Oklahoma 160,953 44,151,947 5.7 640
32 Georgia 433,569 115,193,862 5.9 638
33 Pennsylvania 600,897 184,903,767 5.4 602
34 Nevada 133,584 52,838,629 4.5 562
35 New Jersey 508,003 213,933,875 4.4 540
36 Maryland 317,678 94,211,004 6.3 535
37 Missouri 258,832 76,489,010 6.5 521
38 California 2,003,479 777,918,403 5.0 515
39 Connecticut 229,317 112,372,072 4.1 498
40 Arkansas 109,557 37,704,936 5.9 492
41 Kentucky 173,466 86,245,730 4.5 447
42 Alaska 51,859 29,780,396 4.1 425
43 Michigan 400,504 142,668,026 7.0 401
44 Alabama 183,547 68,343,597 7.1 378
45 Illinois 695,238 321,354,115 5.8 373
46 Ohio 509,393 321,340,764 4.3 369
47 South Carolina 176,217 71,105,557 6.9 359
48 New Mexico 80,600 50,137,504 5.6 287
49 Louisiana 243,264 83,280,815 10.8 270
50 Mississippi 101,490 54,686,815 7.4 251