I
just don't think it's the right year. There's too much at stake, and
a vote for Clinton is too risky. Firstly, we need to seriously
consider the fact that Donald Trump has no chance of winning. As of
October 28, the most recent poll shows Clinton ahead by 5 points. In
2012 the largest poll completed on October 28 showed Obama and Romney
tied 48% to 48%. Obama still won, and not by a small margin. He won
by 126 electoral votes. Romney could have won California and Oregon,
and he still would have lost the election. To win this election Trump
would need to get at least 63 more electoral votes than Romney won in
2012. The easiest way to do this would be winning the four states
that Obama won by the narrowest margins: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and
Colorado. (Of course he would also need to maintain all of the states
that Romney won in 2012). Looking at some of the details of Colorado
show just how impossible it will be for Trump to win that state. In
case you hadn't noticed, this election is an interesting little
rematch for the two major third party candidates. Jill Stein and Gary
Johnson were the Green and Libertarian candidates in 2012. The
Colorado vote totals in 2012 were 51% for Obama and 46% for Romney.
Part of the reason it wasn't even close is that Johnson did
relatively well there with 1.4%. I think it is safe to say that
Johnson will improve substantially on that number this year. Personally, I would be very surprised if trump were even to win any of the other three states.
And
what if Trump does win. We need to take an honest look at the fact that
this scenario would not be the nightmare that liberals imagine.
Donald trump is a notable candidate. Notable for his eagerness to
offend people, but not particularly notable for how right wing his
positions are. According to insidegov.com Trump is to the left of Ted
Cruz in every category (individual, domestic, economic, and defense).
He is left of Marco Rubio in every category except economic issues.
Notably, his score for defense issues is identical to Clinton's. As for the crazy stuff that Trump has proposed for immigration policy, this is some of the least concerning, since it has no chance of being enacted even if he were to somehow get elected. Trump has made numerous enemies among Republicans in Congress. A Trump presidency would resemble something similar to Jesse Ventura's term as governor of Minnesota. Trump's proposals would be ignored and Republicans and Democrats in Congress would negotiate to govern without him.
Then again, we
must consider the possibility of losing the progress we've made.
After all, Guantanamo is closed, and the wars in the Middle East have
been ended. Actually, never mind, I just checked; 60 people are still
detained in Guantanamo, and 8,400 troops remain in Afghanistan. What
happened in Libya illustrated the fact that Obama oversaw
continuation of the imperialist aggression that George W. Bush began.
Any notion that the bombing of Libya had any humanitarian motives
were shattered when it was revealed that the CIA had been
collaborating with Muammar Gaddafi for its torture programs. Scott
Horton wrote of the Justice Department's handling of this
information, "But
this very whitewashing raises fundamental doubt about the Obama
Administration’s commitment to ending torture by American
intelligence operatives. To the contrary, the Obama Administration’s
handling of the matter appears to retain torture as a viable option
for American foreign policy." Remeber that Hillary Clinton was
Secretary of State during this time. Perhaps some of Obama's
shortcomings can be explained by the fact that Republicans controlled
at least half of congress for most of his presidency. We should look
back to the golden age: 2009 to 2011 when Democrats dominated the
Senate, House, and the White house, and the Holy Grail was obtained:
healthcare reform. We on the left were hoping for nationalized
healthcare: a free system under which the hospitals and clinics would
not be controlled by for profit corporations. We were willing to
settle for single payer healthcare. We didn't get that either. At
least universal healthcare is progress right? Except that we didn't
get that either. While I do recognize that Obamacare is a slight
improvement from what we had previously (particularly for people who
were unable to get insurance due to preexisting conditions), in the
end we got regressive taxes on medical devices and Cadillac insurance
plans, premiums that are continuing to become less and less
affordable, and all for a decrease in the uninsured from 17.1% to
11%.
Why waste your vote on Clinton when you have the opportunity to contribute to real change? Jill Stein will not win this election, but the more votes she gets, the more it builds the confidence of the working class, and develops a movement. Getting 5% of the vote in some states can result in important ballot access, major party status, and federal funding. The more people vote for Democrats, the more the cycle continues. People don't support third parties because they don't get many votes, and people don't vote for third parties because they don't have much support.
What world will we live in twenty years from now? Will we be overwhelmed with refugees fleeing rising sea levels, water shortages, war... Will we be refugees? Will we tell our children that one day long ago we had an opportunity to build a movement that had the potential to create a rational economy and a real democracy, but that we didn't take it. Because we were just used to voting for the second worst candidate.
