Barack Obama Will Win the 2012 Presidential Election

The 2012 Presidential Election will be the first presidential election to use the new electoral apportionment based on the 2010 census. Because states experienced differing levels of population growth between the 2000 and 2010 censuses, eight states will gain electoral votes, while 10 will lose electoral votes in the 2012 election. Texas, for example, experienced the greatest change- gaining four electoral votes. In 2008, Barack Obama was elected with 365 electoral votes versus John McCain's 173. If that election were rerun with the new apportionment, Obama would have been elected with 359 versus 179. To win the 2012 election, Republicans will still need to gain another 91 electoral votes. They could gain 95 by winning the six states that Obama won by the narrowest margin in 2008: North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado (listed in order from narrowest margin to greatest). (Nebraska's Second Congressional District was also among the jurisdictions Obama won by a very small margin, but with only one electoral vote it will probably be inconsequential.) From this purely statistical perspective, the outcome of the 2012 election will be determined by Colorado. Presumably, if the Republicans can retake Colorado (which they previously lost by an 8.95% margin) then they can easily win the other five. An alternative theory might suppose that Obama wouldn't have done nearly as well in Colorado if the Democratic National Convention hadn't been held in Denver in 2008. This might suggest that Virginia will be the most important battleground. The home state of the candidates can also sway election results. (Notably, Walter Mondale's home state of Minnesota was the only state he won in the 1984 presidential election.) If Mitt Romney is nominated, however, he will have little chance of winning his solidly Democratic home state of Massachusetts. The home states of Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich (Alaska, Arkansas, and Georgia) were all won by McCain in 2008. Tim Pawlenty may be the only serious contender who could potentially swing his home state of Minnesota to the Republican side. Obama's margin of victory was 10.24% in Minnesota, which has 10 electoral votes. Pawlenty, however, is performing dismally in polls of Republicans. Moreover, McCain may have performed even worse in Minnesota if the 2008 Republican National Convention hadn't been held in St. Paul. The 2012 Democratic and Republican National Conventions will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina, and Tampa, Florida, respectively. Both locations are within the six key swing states listed above.

I predict the Republican nominee will be either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. Romney will be the first choice of the Republican establishment that seeks to nominate whoever they think is most electable. Newt Gingrich would represent a compromise with the Tea Party faction which sees Romney as being too liberal. Both will have difficulty with Christian social conservatives. Romney because he is a Mormon, and Gingrich because of his history of adultery and divorce.

Any votes Obama looses will be from the left. A sober analysis of his policies would conclude that he is the most right wing Democratic president in recent history. The Republican plane of attack will therefore have to rely on vague accusations such as implications that he is 'un-American' (as has been characteristic of the birthers' accusations). The alternatives for left voters will be few. Although Ralph Nader has suggested he might run, he will be 78 years old on election day, and it can be assumed that his campaign would be very limited. Stewart Alexander is seeking both Socialist Party and Green Party endorsement, but he is not well known. Most of the left who are too disillusioned to vote for Obama again simply won't vote.

In all likelihood, Barack Obama will win the 2012 election, probably with an only slightly narrower margin than 2008.