Wednesday, October 12, 2011

"Don't blame Wall Street, don't blame the big banks, if you don't have a job and you're not rich, blame yourself!"

These were the words of Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain in reference to people participating in the Occupy Wall Street movement. Normally such a remark could be dismissed as an outburst from a candidate whose probability of being nominated is approaching zero, but according to a Public Policy poll conducted shortly after the remark, Cain is now in the lead. 30% of respondents said they would vote for Cain, while only 22% said they would vote for Mitt Romney (who came in second place). I don't think that Cain's exceptional performance in this one poll means that he has any chance of being nominated. In some respects Cain reminds us of Steve Forbes. Forbes was noted for making his 1996 and 2000 campaigns into essentially single issue campaigns around his proposed 17% flat tax. Cain now talks about his 9-9-9 tax plan so much that I think his goal is to mention it at least nine times at every debate. Both Forbes and Cain have also promoted themselves as someone coming from outside of politics. This concept may have some populist appeal, but ultimately it probably won't help Cain get the nomination anymore than it did Forbes. The last person to be elected president without previously serving as a governor, US senator, or vice president was Dwight D. Eisenhower. Moreover, since Eisenhower, neither of the two major parties have nominated a candidate who hadn't previously served in one of these three roles. Eisenhower was one of only four such presidential candidates withing the past 100 years.

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