Jon Huntsman Quits

Jon Huntsman is now dropping out of the race. Could his decision have been influenced by one poll showing that he was behind Stephen Colbert in South Carolina (5% versus 4%)? I looked through some of the details of this poll to determine the source of such a contradiction (a fake conservative doing so well in a poll of Republicans). Are there Republicans who don't realize that Colbert is being satirical? Are the participants really just not very well informed about the candidates and just picking a familiar name from the list? The only restriction on the poll was that it was of people who say they plan to vote in the Republican Primary. Of the participants, 4% described themselves as somewhat liberal, while 3% described themselves as very liberal. I'll leave it for you to decide why these people plan on voting in a Republican Primary. But the question in this poll that really made me think was number 19: "Do you think that corporations are people or that only people are people?" 33% felt that corporations are people. I'm not concerned here with the 2010 Supreme Court decision that increased the ability of corporations to intervene in elections (which the question is probably meant to refer to). The question, upon detailed examination, appears to be an exercise in set theory. The question could have been, "Do you believe that the set A includes only the objects composing the set A, or that it also includes other objects?" Or perhaps they should have asked, "If A is the number of people in the world, and B is the number of corporations in the world, then does A+B=A?" 

Many have anticipated Rick Perry and either Gingrich or Santorum dropping out so that Romney might have a serious challenge in South Carolina. A January 13 poll shows that 12% of Huntsman supporters have Romney as their second choice (32% have Buddy Roemer as their second choice). Huntsman's departure makes it all the more inevitable that Romney will win the nomination. The Democratic Party appears to be assuming a Romney nomination. They have Many anti Romney videos on their YouTube channel, but many of them were uploaded before the Iowa Caucuses. Furthermore, their favorite attack on Romney appears to be the claim that he employed illegal immigrants. Ironically, the 28-minute anti Romney video produced by the pro Gingrich PAC Winning our Future is far more left wing than anything the Democratic Party has produced. I think the Democrats have calculated that if they can convince Republicans to endorse Ron Paul or Rick Santorum rather than Romney, then Obama will have an easy victory. The calculation that Winning our Future has made is that if they can convince Republicans that Romney will be painted as a ruthless vulture capitalist by Obama, then maybe Republicans will take a second look at Gingrich. 

Here are my predictions for South Carolina:

1 Mitt Romney 42%

2 Newt Gingrich 22%

3 Ron Paul 19%

4 Rick Santorum 14%

5 Rick Perry 2%