I again made a chart designed to help estimate the likelihood of the incumbent president's reelection. The percent vote margin in the 2016 presidential election is shown for each state (note that a few states separate Congressional Districts in the electoral process). The states are shown in order with the strongest margin for Clinton on the left, and the strongest margin for Trump on the right. The number after each state name is the number of electoral votes for that state. Trump's margin of victory was 74 electoral votes, meaning that half that number (37) electoral votes will need to move from Trump to the Democrat for Trump to lose in 2020. Based on this data, this would most easily happen with three states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) moving from Trump to the Democrats. Without looking at any polls, I would estimate that this is a possibility. Trump won these states largely because of promises of manufacturing and mining jobs. While Trump did achieve a lot of economic growth and low unemployment before the pandemic started, the largest job growth was actually in healthcare and education. Mining and manufacturing actually continued to lose jobs. On the other hand, the Democrats have continued to blunder their way through the election, showing no signs of a winning strategy, and failing to identify galvanizing candidates.
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