Obama's Lead by State

This shows Obama's lead over Romney as of November 2 (states where Romney leads are shown as negative). The states are ranked from Obama's greatest lead on the left to Romney's greatest lead on the right. For most states I used the most recent available poll results. If more than one poll was done at about the same time, I used the results of the one with the smaller margin of error. For the few states where no poll has been conducted, I used the results of the 2008 presidential election. This places the electoral vote count at 272 to 251, with Obama in the lead (I didn't count North Carolina on either side since the polls say there is an equal split there). To pull off a victory, it now appears Romney would have to win over North Carolina and Iowa. I'll try to make some improvements for future versions on this chart.

G-Rated Academy Award Winning Movies

Here is a list of every G-rated Academy Award winning movie since 1968 (the year that the modern rating system was established). The list does not include a few earlier movies that were retroactively rated. You'll probably notice the evolution to more and more strict criteria for the G rating over time. In 1968 four G-rated movies won Academy Awards. Today it averages about one every two years. Originally, the G rating was given to any movie that didn't contain anything particularly objectionable. By the late 1970's, only movies directed at children typically received a G rating. Later, it practically became a requirement that G rated movies be animated. Now even animated movies like Happy Feet and Up can't get a G rating. 

Oliver! (1968) Best Picture, Best Original or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Art Direction

Funny Girl (1968) Best Actress

The Subject Was Roses (1968) Best Supporting Actor

Winnie the Pooh and the Blustery Day (1968) Best Animated Short

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) Best Visual Effects

It's Tough to Be a Bird (1969) Best Animated Short

Hello, Dolly (1969) Best Original or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Art Direction

Marooned (1969) Best Visual Effects

Airport (1970) Best Supporting Actress

Let It Be (1970) Best Original or Adaptation Score

Cromwell (1970) Best Costume Design

Tora! Tora! Tora! (1970) Best Visual Effects

The Hellstrom Chronicle (1971) Best Documentary Feature

Sentinels of Silence (1971) Best Documentary Short, Best Live Action Short

Fiddler on the Roof (1971) Best Original Song Score or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Cinematography

Bedknobs and Broomsticks (1971) Best Visual Effects

The Great American Cowboy (1973) Best Documentary Feature

Frank Film (1973) Best Animated Short

Dersu Uzala (1975) Best Foreign Language Film

The Man Who Skied Down Everest (1975) Best Documentary Feature

The Black Stallion (1979) Best Sound Editing

From Mao to Mozart: Isaac Stern in China (1981) Best Documentary Feature

The Dollar Bottom (1981) Best Live Action Short

Babette's Feast (1987) Best Foreign Language Film

The Little Mermaid (1989) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Beauty and the Beast (1991) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Aladdin (1992) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

The Lion King (1994) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Pocahontas (1995) Best Original Song, Best Original Musical or Comedy Score

Babe (1995) Best Visual Effects

Geri's Game (1997) Best Animated Short

Tarzan (1998) Best Original Song

For the Birds (2000) Best Animated Short

Monsters, Inc. (2001) Best Original Song

The Chubbchubbs! (2002) Best Animated Short

Finding Nemo (2003) Best Animated Feature

Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) Best Animated Feature

March of the Penguins (2005) Best Documentary Feature

Ratatouille (2007) Best Animated Feature

Wall-E (2008) Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 3 (2010) Best Animated Feature

Electoral College Math- Updated and Corrected

In my last post I totaled the electoral votes Obama and Romney would get as predicted by state polls. I noticed that my totals were six short of the 538 electoral votes for the country as a whole. This was because I missed Delaware and the District of Columbia. No state polls were done in either of these states. 

I totaled the votes again with the most recent polls as of September 25, 2012. The polls predict 341 electoral votes for Obama, and 181 for Romney. No state polls have been conducted in Alaska, Idaho, or Wyoming. These will certainly be won by Romney, bringing his total to 191. Again, no state polls have been conducted in Delaware or the District of Columbia, and these will certainly be won by Obama, bringing his total to 347. This still implies a closer election than the 365 to 173 Obama scored against McCain in 2008, but things are starting to look less interesting. 

Electoral Vote Math

Current state polls show Obama winning 265 electoral votes, with Romney winning 257. No state polls have been done for Alaska (3 EV), Idaho (4 EV), and Wyoming (3 EV). Romney will almost certainly win all three of these states, meaning that Romney is projected to win the election by two electoral votes. That is, if you believe the polls. Essentially every poll except the two done by Rasmussen Reports (an agency that tends to favor Republicans) has shown that Iowa (6 EV) will be won by Obama. Rasmussen is also the only agency that believes Romney will win Wisconsin (10 EV). You might think that Wisconsin would be a likely win for Romney considering that it is Paul Ryan's home state. Unfortunately for Romney, a CNN poll conducted two days after the Paul Ryan announcement showed Obama ahead by four points.

Revisiting Obama's Chance of Victory

In May 2012 I made the prediction that Barack Obama would win the 2012 general election and that either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich would be the Republican Nominee. I named six key swing states that the Republicans would need to win in order for there to be a Republican victory. Those states are: North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. We'll review the most recent polls in those states:

North Carolina: Obama 46%; Romney 48%

Indiana: Obama 42%; Romney 48%

Florida: Obama 46%; Romney 42%

Ohio: Obama 45%; Romney 48%

Virginia: Obama 49%; Romney 46%

Colorado: Obama 49%; Romney 42%

There is much speculation now that Marco Rubio will be Romney's running mate. There are two important facts about Rubio: he is a U.S. Senator from Florida, and his parents are immigrants from Cuba. The idea is that adding him to the ticket could both win the state of Florida for Romney, and improve Romney's poll numbers with Latinos. Polls show Obama ahead by about 44 points among Latinos. 

I think that adding Rubio to the ticket could push Florida to Romney's side, but he would still need to find a way to win Virginia and Colorado. According to the 2010 Census Virginia is 7.9% Hispanic and Colorado is 20.7% Hispanic (compared to 9.7% for the United States overall). This might lead you to believe that Obama will barely win the election, holding onto just Virginia of the six. I doubt this. Rubio is Cuban, not Mexican. He has stated that he supports SB 1070 for Arizona, but not for Florida. I interpret this as meaning that he is okay with Mexicans being oppressed, just not Cubans. The media has focused a lot on Romney's large recent fundraising totals, but cash on hand is the better overall predictor of whose poll numbers are going to improve from this point forward. Obama has $261 million, more than twice Romney's $122 million. The evidence still points to a fairly easy victory for Obama.