Obama vs. Romney: Most Recent Polls

To update my previous post, as of November 4 the polls indicate that Ohio, Florida, and Virginia have all become Obama territory, while Colorado is now tied. This means 323 electoral votes for Obama, and 191 for Romney. To win the election Romney will need another 79 electoral votes. He could do this by picking up the two tied states, North Carolina and Colorado, as well as the currently Obama leaning states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. 

Here is an updated chart, the poll numbers are shown above the columns, the electoral votes of the respective states are shown below the state abbreviations.

Obama's Lead by State

This shows Obama's lead over Romney as of November 2 (states where Romney leads are shown as negative). The states are ranked from Obama's greatest lead on the left to Romney's greatest lead on the right. For most states I used the most recent available poll results. If more than one poll was done at about the same time, I used the results of the one with the smaller margin of error. For the few states where no poll has been conducted, I used the results of the 2008 presidential election. This places the electoral vote count at 272 to 251, with Obama in the lead (I didn't count North Carolina on either side since the polls say there is an equal split there). To pull off a victory, it now appears Romney would have to win over North Carolina and Iowa. I'll try to make some improvements for future versions on this chart.

G-Rated Academy Award Winning Movies

Here is a list of every G-rated Academy Award winning movie since 1968 (the year that the modern rating system was established). The list does not include a few earlier movies that were retroactively rated. You'll probably notice the evolution to more and more strict criteria for the G rating over time. In 1968 four G-rated movies won Academy Awards. Today it averages about one every two years. Originally, the G rating was given to any movie that didn't contain anything particularly objectionable. By the late 1970's, only movies directed at children typically received a G rating. Later, it practically became a requirement that G rated movies be animated. Now even animated movies like Happy Feet and Up can't get a G rating. 

Oliver! (1968) Best Picture, Best Original or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Art Direction

Funny Girl (1968) Best Actress

The Subject Was Roses (1968) Best Supporting Actor

Winnie the Pooh and the Blustery Day (1968) Best Animated Short

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) Best Visual Effects

It's Tough to Be a Bird (1969) Best Animated Short

Hello, Dolly (1969) Best Original or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Art Direction

Marooned (1969) Best Visual Effects

Airport (1970) Best Supporting Actress

Let It Be (1970) Best Original or Adaptation Score

Cromwell (1970) Best Costume Design

Tora! Tora! Tora! (1970) Best Visual Effects

The Hellstrom Chronicle (1971) Best Documentary Feature

Sentinels of Silence (1971) Best Documentary Short, Best Live Action Short

Fiddler on the Roof (1971) Best Original Song Score or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Cinematography

Bedknobs and Broomsticks (1971) Best Visual Effects

The Great American Cowboy (1973) Best Documentary Feature

Frank Film (1973) Best Animated Short

Dersu Uzala (1975) Best Foreign Language Film

The Man Who Skied Down Everest (1975) Best Documentary Feature

The Black Stallion (1979) Best Sound Editing

From Mao to Mozart: Isaac Stern in China (1981) Best Documentary Feature

The Dollar Bottom (1981) Best Live Action Short

Babette's Feast (1987) Best Foreign Language Film

The Little Mermaid (1989) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Beauty and the Beast (1991) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Aladdin (1992) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

The Lion King (1994) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Pocahontas (1995) Best Original Song, Best Original Musical or Comedy Score

Babe (1995) Best Visual Effects

Geri's Game (1997) Best Animated Short

Tarzan (1998) Best Original Song

For the Birds (2000) Best Animated Short

Monsters, Inc. (2001) Best Original Song

The Chubbchubbs! (2002) Best Animated Short

Finding Nemo (2003) Best Animated Feature

Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) Best Animated Feature

March of the Penguins (2005) Best Documentary Feature

Ratatouille (2007) Best Animated Feature

Wall-E (2008) Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 3 (2010) Best Animated Feature

Electoral College Math- Updated and Corrected

In my last post I totaled the electoral votes Obama and Romney would get as predicted by state polls. I noticed that my totals were six short of the 538 electoral votes for the country as a whole. This was because I missed Delaware and the District of Columbia. No state polls were done in either of these states. 

I totaled the votes again with the most recent polls as of September 25, 2012. The polls predict 341 electoral votes for Obama, and 181 for Romney. No state polls have been conducted in Alaska, Idaho, or Wyoming. These will certainly be won by Romney, bringing his total to 191. Again, no state polls have been conducted in Delaware or the District of Columbia, and these will certainly be won by Obama, bringing his total to 347. This still implies a closer election than the 365 to 173 Obama scored against McCain in 2008, but things are starting to look less interesting. 

Electoral Vote Math

Current state polls show Obama winning 265 electoral votes, with Romney winning 257. No state polls have been done for Alaska (3 EV), Idaho (4 EV), and Wyoming (3 EV). Romney will almost certainly win all three of these states, meaning that Romney is projected to win the election by two electoral votes. That is, if you believe the polls. Essentially every poll except the two done by Rasmussen Reports (an agency that tends to favor Republicans) has shown that Iowa (6 EV) will be won by Obama. Rasmussen is also the only agency that believes Romney will win Wisconsin (10 EV). You might think that Wisconsin would be a likely win for Romney considering that it is Paul Ryan's home state. Unfortunately for Romney, a CNN poll conducted two days after the Paul Ryan announcement showed Obama ahead by four points.