Obama vs. Romney: Most Recent Polls

To update my previous post, as of November 4 the polls indicate that Ohio, Florida, and Virginia have all become Obama territory, while Colorado is now tied. This means 323 electoral votes for Obama, and 191 for Romney. To win the election Romney will need another 79 electoral votes. He could do this by picking up the two tied states, North Carolina and Colorado, as well as the currently Obama leaning states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. 

Here is an updated chart, the poll numbers are shown above the columns, the electoral votes of the respective states are shown below the state abbreviations.

Obama's Lead by State

This shows Obama's lead over Romney as of November 2 (states where Romney leads are shown as negative). The states are ranked from Obama's greatest lead on the left to Romney's greatest lead on the right. For most states I used the most recent available poll results. If more than one poll was done at about the same time, I used the results of the one with the smaller margin of error. For the few states where no poll has been conducted, I used the results of the 2008 presidential election. This places the electoral vote count at 272 to 251, with Obama in the lead (I didn't count North Carolina on either side since the polls say there is an equal split there). To pull off a victory, it now appears Romney would have to win over North Carolina and Iowa. I'll try to make some improvements for future versions on this chart.

G-Rated Academy Award Winning Movies

Here is a list of every G-rated Academy Award winning movie since 1968 (the year that the modern rating system was established). The list does not include a few earlier movies that were retroactively rated. You'll probably notice the evolution to more and more strict criteria for the G rating over time. In 1968 four G-rated movies won Academy Awards. Today it averages about one every two years. Originally, the G rating was given to any movie that didn't contain anything particularly objectionable. By the late 1970's, only movies directed at children typically received a G rating. Later, it practically became a requirement that G rated movies be animated. Now even animated movies like Happy Feet and Up can't get a G rating. 

Oliver! (1968) Best Picture, Best Original or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Art Direction

Funny Girl (1968) Best Actress

The Subject Was Roses (1968) Best Supporting Actor

Winnie the Pooh and the Blustery Day (1968) Best Animated Short

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) Best Visual Effects

It's Tough to Be a Bird (1969) Best Animated Short

Hello, Dolly (1969) Best Original or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Art Direction

Marooned (1969) Best Visual Effects

Airport (1970) Best Supporting Actress

Let It Be (1970) Best Original or Adaptation Score

Cromwell (1970) Best Costume Design

Tora! Tora! Tora! (1970) Best Visual Effects

The Hellstrom Chronicle (1971) Best Documentary Feature

Sentinels of Silence (1971) Best Documentary Short, Best Live Action Short

Fiddler on the Roof (1971) Best Original Song Score or Adaptation Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Cinematography

Bedknobs and Broomsticks (1971) Best Visual Effects

The Great American Cowboy (1973) Best Documentary Feature

Frank Film (1973) Best Animated Short

Dersu Uzala (1975) Best Foreign Language Film

The Man Who Skied Down Everest (1975) Best Documentary Feature

The Black Stallion (1979) Best Sound Editing

From Mao to Mozart: Isaac Stern in China (1981) Best Documentary Feature

The Dollar Bottom (1981) Best Live Action Short

Babette's Feast (1987) Best Foreign Language Film

The Little Mermaid (1989) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Beauty and the Beast (1991) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Aladdin (1992) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

The Lion King (1994) Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Pocahontas (1995) Best Original Song, Best Original Musical or Comedy Score

Babe (1995) Best Visual Effects

Geri's Game (1997) Best Animated Short

Tarzan (1998) Best Original Song

For the Birds (2000) Best Animated Short

Monsters, Inc. (2001) Best Original Song

The Chubbchubbs! (2002) Best Animated Short

Finding Nemo (2003) Best Animated Feature

Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) Best Animated Feature

March of the Penguins (2005) Best Documentary Feature

Ratatouille (2007) Best Animated Feature

Wall-E (2008) Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 3 (2010) Best Animated Feature

Electoral College Math- Updated and Corrected

In my last post I totaled the electoral votes Obama and Romney would get as predicted by state polls. I noticed that my totals were six short of the 538 electoral votes for the country as a whole. This was because I missed Delaware and the District of Columbia. No state polls were done in either of these states. 

I totaled the votes again with the most recent polls as of September 25, 2012. The polls predict 341 electoral votes for Obama, and 181 for Romney. No state polls have been conducted in Alaska, Idaho, or Wyoming. These will certainly be won by Romney, bringing his total to 191. Again, no state polls have been conducted in Delaware or the District of Columbia, and these will certainly be won by Obama, bringing his total to 347. This still implies a closer election than the 365 to 173 Obama scored against McCain in 2008, but things are starting to look less interesting. 

Electoral Vote Math

Current state polls show Obama winning 265 electoral votes, with Romney winning 257. No state polls have been done for Alaska (3 EV), Idaho (4 EV), and Wyoming (3 EV). Romney will almost certainly win all three of these states, meaning that Romney is projected to win the election by two electoral votes. That is, if you believe the polls. Essentially every poll except the two done by Rasmussen Reports (an agency that tends to favor Republicans) has shown that Iowa (6 EV) will be won by Obama. Rasmussen is also the only agency that believes Romney will win Wisconsin (10 EV). You might think that Wisconsin would be a likely win for Romney considering that it is Paul Ryan's home state. Unfortunately for Romney, a CNN poll conducted two days after the Paul Ryan announcement showed Obama ahead by four points.

Revisiting Obama's Chance of Victory

In May 2012 I made the prediction that Barack Obama would win the 2012 general election and that either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich would be the Republican Nominee. I named six key swing states that the Republicans would need to win in order for there to be a Republican victory. Those states are: North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. We'll review the most recent polls in those states:

North Carolina: Obama 46%; Romney 48%

Indiana: Obama 42%; Romney 48%

Florida: Obama 46%; Romney 42%

Ohio: Obama 45%; Romney 48%

Virginia: Obama 49%; Romney 46%

Colorado: Obama 49%; Romney 42%

There is much speculation now that Marco Rubio will be Romney's running mate. There are two important facts about Rubio: he is a U.S. Senator from Florida, and his parents are immigrants from Cuba. The idea is that adding him to the ticket could both win the state of Florida for Romney, and improve Romney's poll numbers with Latinos. Polls show Obama ahead by about 44 points among Latinos. 

I think that adding Rubio to the ticket could push Florida to Romney's side, but he would still need to find a way to win Virginia and Colorado. According to the 2010 Census Virginia is 7.9% Hispanic and Colorado is 20.7% Hispanic (compared to 9.7% for the United States overall). This might lead you to believe that Obama will barely win the election, holding onto just Virginia of the six. I doubt this. Rubio is Cuban, not Mexican. He has stated that he supports SB 1070 for Arizona, but not for Florida. I interpret this as meaning that he is okay with Mexicans being oppressed, just not Cubans. The media has focused a lot on Romney's large recent fundraising totals, but cash on hand is the better overall predictor of whose poll numbers are going to improve from this point forward. Obama has $261 million, more than twice Romney's $122 million. The evidence still points to a fairly easy victory for Obama.

High Five

The Ladder to One Percenthood

In the midst of the debate and discussion surrounding the 1% versus 99% dichotomy, I've heard the claim that making it into the 1% is just a matter of avoiding consumer spending. I decided to do a kind of test of this theory.

Firstly, we should clarify the definition of the 1%. Most people have been defining it by income, but it is really more proper to define it by wealth. Economix had a good article on this topic. They explain that although the 1% are typically defined as those earning more than $380,000 per year, the 1% can also be defined as those with net worth totaling more than $8,400,000.

So, let us assume that you earn the 2010 median household income of $49,445. We'll also assume that you avoid consumer spending altogether. That's right, we'll assume that you somehow avoid all living expenses, and save 100% of your income. While we're at it, we might as well throw in an assumption that you somehow avoid paying any taxes. You then invest the money at a rate of return of 9.59% (the 20-year average S&P 500 total return). If you start this process at age 18, you'll enter the one percent club by the time you're 50 years old. You can surmise that adding in a small tax rate or living expenses would mean that you won't live long enough to enter the club at all. 

If you're wondering how long it would take you to make it to the top, Carlos Slim Helu's (the richest person on Earth) $69 billion would be matched when you turn 147.

Bring Back the California Raisins

The California Raisin Marketing Board is waging war on Craisins. Apparently the dried cranberries, marketed by Ocean Spray, are cutting into raisin sales. The 'Lets Keep it Real' campaign alleges that Craisins are less healthy, featuring moms who are shocked to learn how much sugar is in Craisins. They don't mention the fact that raisins contain nearly the same amount of sugar. If you really want to compare the details, you can get the complete nutrition facts from the USDA. Overall, raisins appear to be a little more nutritious. Craisins, however, can boast that they have more fiber, less sodium, slightly more niacin and vitamin K, and a lot more vitamin E. Being from Wisconsin, where most of the U.S. cranberry crop is grown, I feel some sense of duty to defend cranberries. I would suggest that rather than negative campaigning, the California Raisin Marketing Board should reintroduce the California Raisin commercials of the 1980s.

Ratio of Democrats to Republicans in the Federal Government

There are 242 Republicans in the 112th Congress House of Representatives. This is the most Republicans in the House since 1949, but this is not the high point of Republican power in the Federal Government. During the 108th and 109th Congresses (2003-2007) Republicans had a majority in the House and Senate, as well as holding the Presidency. 

The following chart shows the ratio of Democrats in the Federal Government since 1957. A value of 1 would imply that the President and all members of Congress are Democrats. A value of 0 would imply that all are Republicans. Values are weighted with the assumption that 50% of the power lies in the Presidency, 25% in the Senate and 25% in the House of Representatives. Independents and members of third parties were ignored by excluding them from the total number of members in the respective body. The high point of Democratic power (since 1957) was the 89th Congress (1965-1967).

If Romney Loses in Michigan

The latest commentary on the Republican nominating contest goes something like this: Rick Santorum is now in the lead, and if Mitt Romney loses in Michigan then his campaign may be over. We should address the first point first; Rick Santorum is not in the lead. Santorum (44 delegates) is in third place behind Romney (123 delegates) and Gingrich (45 delegates). Even the claim that winning the most recent contests is more important than the total number of delegates doesn't clearly place Santorum in the lead; Mitt Romney won the Main caucuses, which ended February 11. Before going any further, I should note that there is substantial difference of opinion on projected delegate numbers. The Associated Press is much more bullish on Santorum, projecting 71 for him, while projecting 105 for Romney and 29 for Gingrich. CNN, on the other hand, projects 127 for Romney, 38 for Gingrich, and 37 for Santorum. Most of the discrepancy results from differing opinions on Minnesota. The Associated Press projects all 37 of Minnesota's caucus tied delegates going to Santorum. CNN is only confident that he'll get 6 of them. I'm trusting my favorite source, Wikipedia, which is between the AP and CNN projections. 

So lets say that Romney loses in Michigan. In fact, we'll suppose that he'll lose terribly, and Gingrich will win all 30 delegates. That would bring Gingrich's total up to 75. But if we're supposing that Romney will do poorly in his home state of Michigan, then perhaps we should also assume that he'll do poorly in Arizona. That is potentially another 29 delegates for Gingrich, bringing his total to 109. That is still 14 delegates less than Romney.

Jon Huntsman Quits

Jon Huntsman is now dropping out of the race. Could his decision have been influenced by one poll showing that he was behind Stephen Colbert in South Carolina (5% versus 4%)? I looked through some of the details of this poll to determine the source of such a contradiction (a fake conservative doing so well in a poll of Republicans). Are there Republicans who don't realize that Colbert is being satirical? Are the participants really just not very well informed about the candidates and just picking a familiar name from the list? The only restriction on the poll was that it was of people who say they plan to vote in the Republican Primary. Of the participants, 4% described themselves as somewhat liberal, while 3% described themselves as very liberal. I'll leave it for you to decide why these people plan on voting in a Republican Primary. But the question in this poll that really made me think was number 19: "Do you think that corporations are people or that only people are people?" 33% felt that corporations are people. I'm not concerned here with the 2010 Supreme Court decision that increased the ability of corporations to intervene in elections (which the question is probably meant to refer to). The question, upon detailed examination, appears to be an exercise in set theory. The question could have been, "Do you believe that the set A includes only the objects composing the set A, or that it also includes other objects?" Or perhaps they should have asked, "If A is the number of people in the world, and B is the number of corporations in the world, then does A+B=A?" 

Many have anticipated Rick Perry and either Gingrich or Santorum dropping out so that Romney might have a serious challenge in South Carolina. A January 13 poll shows that 12% of Huntsman supporters have Romney as their second choice (32% have Buddy Roemer as their second choice). Huntsman's departure makes it all the more inevitable that Romney will win the nomination. The Democratic Party appears to be assuming a Romney nomination. They have Many anti Romney videos on their YouTube channel, but many of them were uploaded before the Iowa Caucuses. Furthermore, their favorite attack on Romney appears to be the claim that he employed illegal immigrants. Ironically, the 28-minute anti Romney video produced by the pro Gingrich PAC Winning our Future is far more left wing than anything the Democratic Party has produced. I think the Democrats have calculated that if they can convince Republicans to endorse Ron Paul or Rick Santorum rather than Romney, then Obama will have an easy victory. The calculation that Winning our Future has made is that if they can convince Republicans that Romney will be painted as a ruthless vulture capitalist by Obama, then maybe Republicans will take a second look at Gingrich. 

Here are my predictions for South Carolina:

1 Mitt Romney 42%

2 Newt Gingrich 22%

3 Ron Paul 19%

4 Rick Santorum 14%

5 Rick Perry 2%

2012 New Hampshire Primary Prediction

My Iowa prediction was quite inaccurate, but I've refined my method a little. Here is my prediction for the New Hampshire Primary (this time with percentages):

1 Mitt Romney 53%

2 Ron Paul 17%

3 Rick Santorum 13%

4 Newt Gingrich 11%

5 Jon Huntsman 5%

6 Rick Perry 1%